population model, model comparison, validation, cross-model validation


In this work we present two structurally different mathematical models for the prognostic simulation of Austria’s population: A time-continuous, macroscopic system dynamics approach and a time-discrete, microscopic agent-based approach. Both models were developed as case studies of a series of population concepts in order to support models for decision-support in Austria’s health care system. In the present work we want to focus on the definition, the parametrisation as well as especially the validation process of both population-models. The latter was of special interest as it included a cross-model validation with Statistics Austria’s own prognostic model SIKURS.





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