Session

Computer Science and Communication Engineering

Description

In this work we present two structurally different mathematical models for the prognostic simulation of Austria’s population: A time-continuous, macroscopic system dynamics approach and a time-discrete, microscopic agent-based approach. Both models were developed as case studies of a series of population concepts in order to support models for decision-support in Austria’s health care system. In the present work we want to focus on the definition, the parametrisation as well as especially the validation process of both population-models. The latter was of special interest as it included a cross-model validation with Statistics Austria’s own prognostic model SIKURS.

Keywords:

population model, model comparison, validation, cross-model validation

Proceedings Editor

Edmond Hajrizi

ISBN

978-9951-550-14-7

First Page

174

Last Page

178

Location

Durres, Albania

Start Date

7-11-2015 9:00 AM

End Date

7-11-2015 5:00 PM

DOI

10.33107/ubt-ic.2015.107

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Nov 7th, 9:00 AM Nov 7th, 5:00 PM

Definition, Validation and Comparison of Two Population Models for Austria

Durres, Albania

In this work we present two structurally different mathematical models for the prognostic simulation of Austria’s population: A time-continuous, macroscopic system dynamics approach and a time-discrete, microscopic agent-based approach. Both models were developed as case studies of a series of population concepts in order to support models for decision-support in Austria’s health care system. In the present work we want to focus on the definition, the parametrisation as well as especially the validation process of both population-models. The latter was of special interest as it included a cross-model validation with Statistics Austria’s own prognostic model SIKURS.