Using an Advanced Analysis for Forecasting and Daily Exchange Rates
Session
Management, Business and Economics
Description
In this paper we have taken into account the descriptive analysis for the very long-term behavior of the euro/lek exchange rate.
By analyzing the distribution of the relative change in the daily exchange rate series for the period [2015-2023], we have evidenced a behavior close to the average, which contradicts some econometric arguments and the economic level of the country.
Therefore, consideration of the entire interval for statistical analysis is disqualified.
But in all we observed that the return of the exchange rate of the euro to the national currency has been unstable. This behavior supported the idea that the exchange rate factors have been dominant and have not been identified, so it has shown an almost unsterilized dynamic towards the EU currency. By collecting information about the stationary of states, the presence of regimes and their features, we were able to identify the optimal conditions for measurement, modeling and stable descriptive statistics. Using the decomposition of the empirical method we located the time interval where it aims to reveal the importance for better results in the study in the near future if the general situation remains apparently unchanged.
Keywords:
exchange rate, time series, stationary, variables.
Proceedings Editor
Edmond Hajrizi
ISBN
978-9951-550-95-6
Location
UBT Lipjan, Kosovo
Start Date
28-10-2023 8:00 AM
End Date
29-10-2023 6:00 PM
DOI
10.33107/ubt-ic.2023.181
Recommended Citation
Kushta, Elmira and Denaj, Astrit, "Using an Advanced Analysis for Forecasting and Daily Exchange Rates" (2023). UBT International Conference. 36.
https://knowledgecenter.ubt-uni.net/conference/IC/MBE/36
Using an Advanced Analysis for Forecasting and Daily Exchange Rates
UBT Lipjan, Kosovo
In this paper we have taken into account the descriptive analysis for the very long-term behavior of the euro/lek exchange rate.
By analyzing the distribution of the relative change in the daily exchange rate series for the period [2015-2023], we have evidenced a behavior close to the average, which contradicts some econometric arguments and the economic level of the country.
Therefore, consideration of the entire interval for statistical analysis is disqualified.
But in all we observed that the return of the exchange rate of the euro to the national currency has been unstable. This behavior supported the idea that the exchange rate factors have been dominant and have not been identified, so it has shown an almost unsterilized dynamic towards the EU currency. By collecting information about the stationary of states, the presence of regimes and their features, we were able to identify the optimal conditions for measurement, modeling and stable descriptive statistics. Using the decomposition of the empirical method we located the time interval where it aims to reveal the importance for better results in the study in the near future if the general situation remains apparently unchanged.