A Stage-Structured Model of Progress toward EU Accession in the Western Balkans
Session
Political Science
Description
Whereas much of the extant literature on the effects of EU membership conditionality on policy change in and progress toward EU accession represent conceptual research, qualitative analysis and statistical models, we still lack a comprehensive model of Western Balkans countries’ compliance with EU membership conditions. Qualitative data remain susceptible to subjective interpretations and biased conclusions, whereas statistical analysis relies on scarce data and limited external validity. Mathematical models could fill that gap. We build a stage-structured model that captures the dynamics of EU membership compliance over the last 20 years in the Western Balkans, as they go through the seven stages of the EU accession process. Our model builds on Lefkovitch’s population growth model as updated by Fujiwara and Diaz-Lopez, but makes the necessary modifications to properly apply to our case. Our efforts become relevant as all of the six countries of the region, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia aspire to join the Union, yet they remain in different accession process stages. Serbia and Montenegro are EU candidate countries well ahead in the accession negotiation process; Albania and North Macedonia, two other EU candidate countries, have just received the green light to start accession negotiations; and BiH and Kosovo have signed their Stabilization and Association Agreements with the EU, one of the idiosyncratic accession stages of the EU accession process in the region.
Session Chair
Shqipe Mjekiqi
Session Co-Chair
Artan Mustafa
Proceedings Editor
Edmond Hajrizi
ISBN
978-9951-437-96-7
Location
Lipjan, Kosovo
Start Date
31-10-2020 11:20 AM
End Date
10-2020 12:50 PM
DOI
10.33107/ubt-ic.2020.457
Recommended Citation
Xhaja, Eglantina Kalluçi and Peshkopia, Ridvan, "A Stage-Structured Model of Progress toward EU Accession in the Western Balkans" (2020). UBT International Conference. 200.
https://knowledgecenter.ubt-uni.net/conference/2020/all_events/200
A Stage-Structured Model of Progress toward EU Accession in the Western Balkans
Lipjan, Kosovo
Whereas much of the extant literature on the effects of EU membership conditionality on policy change in and progress toward EU accession represent conceptual research, qualitative analysis and statistical models, we still lack a comprehensive model of Western Balkans countries’ compliance with EU membership conditions. Qualitative data remain susceptible to subjective interpretations and biased conclusions, whereas statistical analysis relies on scarce data and limited external validity. Mathematical models could fill that gap. We build a stage-structured model that captures the dynamics of EU membership compliance over the last 20 years in the Western Balkans, as they go through the seven stages of the EU accession process. Our model builds on Lefkovitch’s population growth model as updated by Fujiwara and Diaz-Lopez, but makes the necessary modifications to properly apply to our case. Our efforts become relevant as all of the six countries of the region, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia aspire to join the Union, yet they remain in different accession process stages. Serbia and Montenegro are EU candidate countries well ahead in the accession negotiation process; Albania and North Macedonia, two other EU candidate countries, have just received the green light to start accession negotiations; and BiH and Kosovo have signed their Stabilization and Association Agreements with the EU, one of the idiosyncratic accession stages of the EU accession process in the region.