A Stage-Structured Model of Progress toward EU Accession in the Western Balkans

Session

Political Science

Description

Whereas much of the extant literature on the effects of EU membership conditionality on policy change in and progress toward EU accession represent conceptual research, qualitative analysis and statistical models, we still lack a comprehensive model of Western Balkans countries’ compliance with EU membership conditions. Qualitative data remain susceptible to subjective interpretations and biased conclusions, whereas statistical analysis relies on scarce data and limited external validity. Mathematical models could fill that gap. We build a stage-structured model that captures the dynamics of EU membership compliance over the last 20 years in the Western Balkans, as they go through the seven stages of the EU accession process. Our model builds on Lefkovitch’s population growth model as updated by Fujiwara and Diaz-Lopez, but makes the necessary modifications to properly apply to our case. Our efforts become relevant as all of the six countries of the region, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia aspire to join the Union, yet they remain in different accession process stages. Serbia and Montenegro are EU candidate countries well ahead in the accession negotiation process; Albania and North Macedonia, two other EU candidate countries, have just received the green light to start accession negotiations; and BiH and Kosovo have signed their Stabilization and Association Agreements with the EU, one of the idiosyncratic accession stages of the EU accession process in the region.

Session Chair

Shqipe Mjekiqi

Session Co-Chair

Artan Mustafa

Proceedings Editor

Edmond Hajrizi

ISBN

978-9951-437-96-7

Location

Lipjan, Kosovo

Start Date

31-10-2020 9:00 AM

End Date

31-10-2020 10:55 AM

DOI

10.33107/ubt-ic.2020.457

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Oct 31st, 9:00 AM Oct 31st, 10:55 AM

A Stage-Structured Model of Progress toward EU Accession in the Western Balkans

Lipjan, Kosovo

Whereas much of the extant literature on the effects of EU membership conditionality on policy change in and progress toward EU accession represent conceptual research, qualitative analysis and statistical models, we still lack a comprehensive model of Western Balkans countries’ compliance with EU membership conditions. Qualitative data remain susceptible to subjective interpretations and biased conclusions, whereas statistical analysis relies on scarce data and limited external validity. Mathematical models could fill that gap. We build a stage-structured model that captures the dynamics of EU membership compliance over the last 20 years in the Western Balkans, as they go through the seven stages of the EU accession process. Our model builds on Lefkovitch’s population growth model as updated by Fujiwara and Diaz-Lopez, but makes the necessary modifications to properly apply to our case. Our efforts become relevant as all of the six countries of the region, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia aspire to join the Union, yet they remain in different accession process stages. Serbia and Montenegro are EU candidate countries well ahead in the accession negotiation process; Albania and North Macedonia, two other EU candidate countries, have just received the green light to start accession negotiations; and BiH and Kosovo have signed their Stabilization and Association Agreements with the EU, one of the idiosyncratic accession stages of the EU accession process in the region.