Comparative Analysis of Inflation Rate in The Western Balkans

Session

Management Business and Economics

Description

This study conducts a comparative analysis of inflation rates in the Western Balkans, encompassing Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, over the period from 2010 to 2024, with forecasts extending to 2026. The study utilizes information obtained from the World Bank Open Database and the Statistical Agencies of the Western Balkans, and employs quantitative methods including panel regression to identify key drivers and ARIMA to project anticipated inflation trends. Overall findings report considerable variability, with inflation range between an average of 5.24% in Serbia due to global price shocks and domestic variables, as compared to the lowest rates for Kosovo at 2.81% and Albania at 2.58 %. The average inflation across the region at 3.3% indicates moderate inflationary pressure. Inflation reached to a peak of 14.2% in 2022 as a result of external crises. Future projections indicate continued declines to reach 5.0% in Serbia, and to 2.7% in Kosovo by 2026. These findings are significant and call on central banks to recognize the necessity of tailoring monetary policy to each economy in the region, while capitalizing on regional partnerships to generate economic stability.

Keywords:

Inflation rates, Western Balkans, Comparative analysis

Proceedings Editor

Edmond Hajrizi

ISBN

978-9951-982-41-2

Location

UBT Lipjan, Kosovo

Start Date

25-10-2025 9:00 AM

End Date

26-10-2025 6:00 PM

DOI

10.33107/ubt-ic.2025.408

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Oct 25th, 9:00 AM Oct 26th, 6:00 PM

Comparative Analysis of Inflation Rate in The Western Balkans

UBT Lipjan, Kosovo

This study conducts a comparative analysis of inflation rates in the Western Balkans, encompassing Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, over the period from 2010 to 2024, with forecasts extending to 2026. The study utilizes information obtained from the World Bank Open Database and the Statistical Agencies of the Western Balkans, and employs quantitative methods including panel regression to identify key drivers and ARIMA to project anticipated inflation trends. Overall findings report considerable variability, with inflation range between an average of 5.24% in Serbia due to global price shocks and domestic variables, as compared to the lowest rates for Kosovo at 2.81% and Albania at 2.58 %. The average inflation across the region at 3.3% indicates moderate inflationary pressure. Inflation reached to a peak of 14.2% in 2022 as a result of external crises. Future projections indicate continued declines to reach 5.0% in Serbia, and to 2.7% in Kosovo by 2026. These findings are significant and call on central banks to recognize the necessity of tailoring monetary policy to each economy in the region, while capitalizing on regional partnerships to generate economic stability.