The Trump Effect on US Public Diplomacy: Results from Survey Experiments in Three “Swing” Countries between the EU and Russia
Session
Political Science
Description
Can the election of new national leaders significantly impact a country’s image abroad? This is frequently assumed but rarely actually tested, leaving us with little knowledge about the nature of any such effects. We address this question by investigating the possible impact of Donald Trump’s election as president in the United States, widely interpreted as a popular rejection of traditional US foreign policy, on attitudes toward the US abroad. We do so through two novel experiments, each conducted in three EU-aspiring countries at a time when Russia has been actively trying to pry countries in the region from US sway. Enhancing its standing in such regions is thus a significant concern for the US in its broader strategy of resisting Russian influence. The states we choose also feature useful variation in longstanding attitudes toward the US that help us identify potential geopolitical interaction effects: One historically with pro-US majority sentiment (Albania), another with strong recent anti-US sentiment (Serbia), and one split between the two ethnic groups dominant in these two countries (Kosovo). Confirming fears of his opponents in the US, we find that Trump’s election significantly damaged American standing in Albania, not only depressing US favorability there but also leading Albanians to be more likely to back the EU over the US in the event of a disagreement between these two entities. American standing was actually enhanced in Serbia, however. Effects in Kosovo break down similarly along its Albanian-Serbian ethnic divide. The deleterious effect in Albania would seem to outweigh the positive effect in Serbia, which is a substantively small improvement in favorability that does not extend to preferring the US over the EU if forced to choose.
Proceedings Editor
Edmond Hajrizi
ISBN
978-9951-550-47-5
Location
UBT Kampus, Lipjan
Start Date
30-10-2021 12:00 AM
End Date
30-10-2021 12:00 AM
DOI
10.33107/ubt-ic.2021.257
Recommended Citation
Hale, Henry E. and Peshkopia, Ridvan, "The Trump Effect on US Public Diplomacy: Results from Survey Experiments in Three “Swing” Countries between the EU and Russia" (2021). UBT International Conference. 267.
https://knowledgecenter.ubt-uni.net/conference/2021UBTIC/all-events/267
The Trump Effect on US Public Diplomacy: Results from Survey Experiments in Three “Swing” Countries between the EU and Russia
UBT Kampus, Lipjan
Can the election of new national leaders significantly impact a country’s image abroad? This is frequently assumed but rarely actually tested, leaving us with little knowledge about the nature of any such effects. We address this question by investigating the possible impact of Donald Trump’s election as president in the United States, widely interpreted as a popular rejection of traditional US foreign policy, on attitudes toward the US abroad. We do so through two novel experiments, each conducted in three EU-aspiring countries at a time when Russia has been actively trying to pry countries in the region from US sway. Enhancing its standing in such regions is thus a significant concern for the US in its broader strategy of resisting Russian influence. The states we choose also feature useful variation in longstanding attitudes toward the US that help us identify potential geopolitical interaction effects: One historically with pro-US majority sentiment (Albania), another with strong recent anti-US sentiment (Serbia), and one split between the two ethnic groups dominant in these two countries (Kosovo). Confirming fears of his opponents in the US, we find that Trump’s election significantly damaged American standing in Albania, not only depressing US favorability there but also leading Albanians to be more likely to back the EU over the US in the event of a disagreement between these two entities. American standing was actually enhanced in Serbia, however. Effects in Kosovo break down similarly along its Albanian-Serbian ethnic divide. The deleterious effect in Albania would seem to outweigh the positive effect in Serbia, which is a substantively small improvement in favorability that does not extend to preferring the US over the EU if forced to choose.