Identifying the match statistics that discriminate winning, drawing, and losing soccer teams in the FIFA World Cup
Session
Sport, Health and Society
Description
The study aimed to identify statistically significant differences in relevant performance factors among winning, drawing, and losing teams across the three most recent World Cup tournaments. Methodology: Based on 177 matches played during the last three World Cups was made the analysis: Brazil in 2014 (59), Russia in 2018 (59), and Qatar in 2022 (59). Data of all matches were obtained from the InStat Scout platform and afterward analyzed. Three categories of variables were studied: 1) variables related to goal scores such as total shots, shots on target, shots off target, and expected goals; 2) variables related to an offense such as ball possession, passes, accurate passes, crosses, off-sides committed, fouls received, corners; and 3) variables related to defense such as Crosses against, corners against, fouls committed, off-sides received, yellow cards, red cards, tackles. Results: Descriptive and univariate analysis shows that in the goal-scoring variables, winning teams consistently outperformed drawing and losing teams in total shots, shots on target, and effectiveness (p<0.01). In the offensive variables, there were no significant differences except in crosses (Russia 2018) and fouls received (Qatar 2022) (p<0.01). For defensive indicators, winning teams had fewer yellow cards than losing and drawing teams (p<0.01). The discriminant analysis correctly classified 74.6% of teams, with the most discriminatory variables being offsides committed, fouls received, fouls committed, and tackles. Conclusion: These findings provide valuable insights for understanding how performance indicators have evolved in international soccer, offering coaches and analysts essential data for improving team strategies and performance.
Keywords:
performance indicator, winning, losing, drawing, match analysis.
Proceedings Editor
Edmond Hajrizi
ISBN
978-9951-982-15-3
Location
UBT Kampus, Lipjan
Start Date
25-10-2024 9:00 AM
End Date
27-10-2024 6:00 PM
DOI
10.33107/ubt-ic.2024.235
Recommended Citation
Thaqi, Agron, "Identifying the match statistics that discriminate winning, drawing, and losing soccer teams in the FIFA World Cup" (2024). UBT International Conference. 1.
https://knowledgecenter.ubt-uni.net/conference/2024UBTIC/SHS/1
Identifying the match statistics that discriminate winning, drawing, and losing soccer teams in the FIFA World Cup
UBT Kampus, Lipjan
The study aimed to identify statistically significant differences in relevant performance factors among winning, drawing, and losing teams across the three most recent World Cup tournaments. Methodology: Based on 177 matches played during the last three World Cups was made the analysis: Brazil in 2014 (59), Russia in 2018 (59), and Qatar in 2022 (59). Data of all matches were obtained from the InStat Scout platform and afterward analyzed. Three categories of variables were studied: 1) variables related to goal scores such as total shots, shots on target, shots off target, and expected goals; 2) variables related to an offense such as ball possession, passes, accurate passes, crosses, off-sides committed, fouls received, corners; and 3) variables related to defense such as Crosses against, corners against, fouls committed, off-sides received, yellow cards, red cards, tackles. Results: Descriptive and univariate analysis shows that in the goal-scoring variables, winning teams consistently outperformed drawing and losing teams in total shots, shots on target, and effectiveness (p<0.01). In the offensive variables, there were no significant differences except in crosses (Russia 2018) and fouls received (Qatar 2022) (p<0.01). For defensive indicators, winning teams had fewer yellow cards than losing and drawing teams (p<0.01). The discriminant analysis correctly classified 74.6% of teams, with the most discriminatory variables being offsides committed, fouls received, fouls committed, and tackles. Conclusion: These findings provide valuable insights for understanding how performance indicators have evolved in international soccer, offering coaches and analysts essential data for improving team strategies and performance.